Iran-US War: If global trade slows and exports decline by 20–25%, packaging demand may also reduce because most goods—require kraft-based packaging, says IRPTA

Iran-US War: If global trade slows and exports decline by 20–25%, packaging demand may also reduce because most goods—require kraft-based packaging, says IRPTA 

-War May Disrupt Recovered Paper Trade; Higher Dollar and Logistics Costs Could Push Paper Prices Up
-TNPL increases price of FBB & SBS, and Cup stock Grades 

-Seasonal factors could also influence supply. Between mid-March and May, large volumes of school notebooks and academic paper waste enter the recycling stream as the academic year ends

The Pulp and Paper Times

The ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia, involving Israel, Iran and the United States along with several Gulf countries, are beginning to create uncertainty in global trade, raising concerns for the Indian paper industry that relies significantly on imports of recovered paper and pulp.

Speaking to The Pulp and Paper Times, Naresh Singhal, President of Indian Recovered Paper Traders Association (IRPTA), said the tense geopolitical environment has already placed pressure on the global economy and could impact import–export flows, which are crucial for the paper sector.

Singhal explained that despite technological advancements and increasing domestic capacity, India still imports a substantial quantity of recovered paper, wood pulp, specialty grades of paper and a significant portion of newsprint. Any disruption in global shipping routes or logistics could delay shipments and tighten the availability of raw materials for paper mills.

He further noted that currency fluctuations are adding to the pressure. The US dollar has been hovering around ₹91–₹92, compared to around ₹88–₹89 earlier, increasing the landed cost of imported materials. “Even if the global price of pulp remains around USD 700 per tonne, a stronger dollar increases the cost for Indian buyers, raising the input cost for mills,” Singhal said.

Logistics uncertainties during conflict situations could also extend shipping timelines and increase freight charges. According to him, shipments that normally take around 20 days could take much longer during periods of conflict, while shipping companies may raise freight rates to cover additional operational risks.

Singhal added that if imports of recovered paper slow down, the domestic market may see some support. Local waste paper prices have already shown a slight improvement after the Holi festival, moving from around ₹17.5 per kg to nearly ₹18–₹18.5 per kg in certain markets.

Seasonal factors could also influence supply. Between mid-March and May, large volumes of school notebooks and academic paper waste enter the recycling stream as the academic year ends. This seasonal influx could temporarily increase domestic recovered paper availability.

In the kraft paper segment, Singhal noted that prices for standard 18 BF grades have recently moved toward ₹29–₹30 per kg. However, he cautioned that export and import volumes also influence packaging demand. “If global trade slows and exports decline by 20–25%, packaging demand may also reduce because most goods—whether fruits, vegetables, machinery parts or consumer products—require kraft-based packaging,” he explained.

Looking ahead, Singhal believes that if the geopolitical tensions continue, the combined impact of a stronger dollar, rising logistics costs and uncertain supply chains could gradually push up input costs for paper mills. Writing and printing paper prices may also see a marginal increase of around ₹1–₹2 per kg in the near term due to higher pulp costs and currency movements.

“The Indian paper industry has become global in nature. Any disruption in international trade routes or currency fluctuations directly affects raw material costs and market dynamics,” Singhal added.

TNPL Increases Prices:

In its Circular dated March 11, 2026, TNPL stated, with rapidly evolving global situation, impact on Paper Industry supply chain is significant. Supply of Crude oil has been severely disrupted due to closure of "Strait of Hormuz", which handles nearly 20-30% of global Crude Oil shipments. Brent Crude Oil prices is also surging. India, being the third-largest importer of Crude Oil globally & rising Crude Oil prices are putting pressure on the Indian rupee, resulting INR is historically at the lowest point against USD & expected to slide further in future. Paper industry also being impacted with multiple cascading effects across the supply chain - increasing freight, energy, pulp & wood chips, chemicals cost. In an unprecedented move by the suppliers, the committed RM orders at old prices are being cancelled & supply disruptions are being foreseen for fresh orders. This could force machines to slow down or stop operations, if the situation prolonged.

In view of the above circumstances, in order to partially offset the cost pressure & to keep the operation sustainable & viable, we are announcing price increase effective 12th Mar 2026 as stated below. 

• FBB & SBS Grades - Rs. 3500/- PMT
• Cup stock grades (including Barrier/PE Coated) - Rs. 2000/- PMT

Web Title: Iran-US War: If global trade slows and exports decline by 20–25%, packaging demand may also reduce because most goods—require kraft-based packaging, says IRPTA